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Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS V SYDNEY ROOSTERS
The Roosters have been decimated by injury, particularly in their key positions, with James Tedesco and Sam Walker heading a long list of outs. Newcastle are far from a complete team but they have covered 11 of 15 at home and hold form when their defence is on song with six covered in nine matches off conceding 10 points.
Betting Strategy
BACK: NEWCASTLE -4.5 at $1.85+
Newcastle are far from a complete team but they have covered 11 of 15 at home and hold form when their defence is on song with six covered in nine matches off conceding 10 points.
MELBOURNE STORM VS CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
The Storm look absolutely primed to lay down a heavy beating on the Bulldogs. Canterbury were impressive for a half against the Roosters but this is a different scenario all together. The Storm have won seven of their last eight against the Bulldogs with the last three all by 20-plus points. Melbourne have covered 19 of 31 at AAMI including the last four off conceding 30-plus. Melbourne are the best of the week.
Betting Strategy
BACK: MELBOURNE -18.5 @ $1.65+
Melbourne have covered 19 of 31 at AAMI including the last four off conceding 30-plus. Melbourne are the best of the week.
BRISBANE BRONCOS VS DOLPHINS
A cracking derby encounter and the Broncos look set to make it three from three in the clash. The Dolphins have been hit hard by injury and Brisbane are at their best at home off a defeat. The Broncos have covered 17 of 22 at Suncorp off a loss while they have covered nine of 12 at the ground off allowing 30-plus points. The Dolphins will be up for this but Brisbane has too much firepower.
Betting Strategy
BACK BRISBANE -10.5 at $1.75+
The Dolphins have been hit hard by injury and Brisbane are at their best at home off a defeat.
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS VS MANLY SEA EAGLES
Manly have covered four straight against the Warriors and seem to be undervalued here. The Warriors have covered just four of 14 off scoring 30-plus and just 13 of 32 when favoured. Manly have covered 17 of 29 off scoring 30-plus. The Warriors have been very good but this number seems far too large.
Betting Strategy
BACK MANLY +5.5 at $1.80+
Manly have covered four straight against the Warriors and seem to be undervalued here.
LAY NEW ZEALAND at up to $1.65
The Warriors have covered just four of 14 off scoring 30-plus and just 13 of 32 when favoured.
PARRAMATTA EELS VS NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
Parramatta are in a nice bounce back spot here while the Cowboys look to be overrated by the market. The Eels have covered four of six as an underdog at Commbank while they have won four of the last six against North Queensland. This is a bad spot for the Cowboys, who have covered just six of their last 18 interstate off a win.
Betting Strategy
BACK PARRAMATTA +3.5 at $1.70+
Parramatta are in a nice bounce back spot here while the Cowboys look to be overrated by the market.
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS VS CRONULLA SHARKS
South Sydney are a tough team to want to get around at the moment – their coach is likely to get sacked this weekend and their best player has been needlessly suspended for three weeks – but as a big home underdog early in the season they need to be bet. Home underdogs of four or more in the opening eight rounds of the season cover at 65% while those off conceding 28-plus cover at 69%. With a nice record against the Sharks, Souths are the play.
Betting Strategy
BACK: SOUTH SYDNEY +6.5 at $1.65+
Their coach is likely to get sacked this weekend and their best player has been needlessly suspended for three weeks – but as a big home underdog early in the season they need to be bet…
WESTS TIGERS VS ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Very keen on the Dragons in this one. The Tigers depth is being tested with John Bateman and the Fainu brothers the latest to be sidelined. The Dragons have won three of the last four meetings with the Tigers and tend to play well off a bad loss, covering eight of 12 off a double digit defeat. The Tigers have covered just 4 of 12 when favoured and one of five against bottom four teams. They have lost eight straight at Campbelltown.
Betting Strategy
BACK ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA at $1.90+
The Dragons have won three of the last four meetings with the Tigers and tend to play well off a bad loss.
CANBERRA RAIDERS VS GOLD COAST TITANS
There is no question that Canberra have played better football than Gold Coast this year but there was enough at the backend of last week's loss to the Cowboys to suggest a win is coming. The Titans have covered 8 of 13 when a double digit underdog and underdogs off conceding 28-plus in Rounds 5-8 cover at 61%. The Raiders have covered just two of nine as a double digit favourite.
Betting Strategy
BACK GOLD COAST +10.5 at $1.75+
The Titans have covered 8 of 13 when a double digit underdog and underdogs off conceding 28-plus in Rounds 5-8 cover at 61%.
NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+
This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.
BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+
This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson's Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team's ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.
LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter
Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.
BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+
Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+
Best value top 4 market. Cronulla's draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.
LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter
Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season's finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+
Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year's Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.
BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+
Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.
LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter
Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.
