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Betfair Hub: Expert NRL Tips - Round 11

3 minute read

Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!

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Canterbury really do seem to be a team on the up and this looks an excellent chance for them to fight their way back into the Top 8. The Bulldogs are unchanged while the Raiders get Jordan Rapana back. Canberra have won eight straight but the Bulldogs have covered both meetings these teams have played in Magic Round. The Bulldogs have covered their last four against Top 8 teams and four of five as a favourite. The Raiders cover at just 40% interstate.

Betting Strategy

BACK CANTERBURY -3.5 @ $1.75 or better

Canterbury really do seem to be a team on the up


Brisbane are the best bet of the round. Manly have lost the talismanic Tom Trbojevic as well as Jason Saab, meaning a host of new ins for the Sea Eagles including Jaxson Paulo. The Broncos have won the last two meetings by 26 and 38  while Brisbane have covered nine of the last 10 at Suncorp. They are 14-3 against the spread at night. Manly have covered just one of their last nine away from Brookvale.

Betting Strategy

BACK BRISBANE -10.5 @ $1.80 or better

Brisbane are the best bet of the round


Gold Coast have been gutted by injury, enduring such a crisis in their halves that hookers Chris Randall and Sam Verrills.  They are unlikely to start though with Tom Weaver projected to come into the team. Gold Coast have won seven of the last eight clashes in Queensland and they have covered six straight. The Knights have some injury woes of their own and look very short.

Betting Strategy

LAY NEWCASTLE @ $1.60 or Shorter

The Knights have some injury woes of their own and look very short.


The Sharks sit atop the premiership ladder but go in big outsiders to the white-hot Roosters. While the Chooks have been playing very well and they have won eight of the last nine against the Sharks, the number looks a little big. Cronulla are 19-12 against the spread as an underdog and have covered five of six interstate. The Roosters have covered just five of 14 off a win.

Betting Strategy

BACK CRONULLA +4.5 at $1.80 or better

The Roosters have covered just five of 14 off a win.


South Sydney are in the throes of creating history. They have failed to cover in 16 straight games, surely a record in the betting era of the NRL. They are a defensive debacle and they do not perform as a big outsider. The Cowboys are wildly inconsistent and the numbers aren't great but they can score points at will. This could get ugly.

Betting Strategy

BACK NORTH QUEENSLAND -8.5 at $1.75 or better

The Cowboys are wildly inconsistent and the numbers aren't great but they can score points at will


Both the Warriors and the Panthers lost their halfbacks last weekend with Shaun Johnson and Nathan Cleary on the sidelines for extended periods. It is the Warriors that look far harder hit though with a total revamp of their backline that sees Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad move into the halves and Taine Tuaupiki play fullback, among other changes. Penrith have won the last five against New Zealand by 14-plus while the Panthers have covered 12 of 18 off scoring 16 or fewer. The Warriors have covered just nine of 24 as an underdog of 10 or more points.

Betting Strategy

BACK PENRITH -13.5 at $1.75 or better

The Warriors have covered just nine of 24 as an underdog of 10 or more points.


There projects to be plenty of points when the Eels and Storm meet on Sunday afternoon. The over is 23-13 when the Storm are a double digit favourite. It is also 26-11 when the Eels are off a loss and 24-11 when they are an underdog. This total is far too low.

Betting Strategy

BACK OVER 44.5 at $1.75 or better

There projects to be plenty of points when the Eels and Storm meet on Sunday afternoon


One of the better bets of the week is to take the Dolphins laying any number up to 14.5. This Tigers team is horrific. Already a bottom four team, John Bateman and Isaiah Papalii join Aiden Sezer and a host of others on the sideline. The Phins, meanwhile, get Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow back. The Dolphins covered both meetings including winning 26-16 in Round 5. The Dolphins have covered four of five when favoured by at least a try while bottom four teams against top eight teams cover at just 40%.

Betting Strategy

BACK DOLPHINS -10.5 at $1.70 or shorter

One of the better bets of the week is to take the Dolphins laying any number up to 14.5.


Betting Strategy

BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+ 

This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.

BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+

This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson's Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team's ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.

LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter

Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.

BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+

Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.

BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+

Best value top 4 market. Cronulla's draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.

LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter

Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season's finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.

BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+

Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year's Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.

BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+

Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.

LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter

Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.


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