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Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
DOLPHINS VS MANLY SEA EAGLES
The Dolphins have been hit hard by injury this year but they just keep delivering so it is surprising that they are an underdog at home to Manly. The Sea Eagles have a shocking record at Suncorp and have covered just one of their last eight away from Brookvale. The Dolphins have covered eight of 12 off conceding 26-plus and three straight on a short turnaround. Very keen the Phins.
Betting Strategy
BACK DOLPHINS at $1.80 or better
Very keen the Phins.
PENRITH PANTHERS VS CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Canterbury are far from dead in this match against premiership favourites Penrith. In two of the last four meetings, the Bulldogs have been an underdog of at least 30 points but Canterbury are a much better proposition in 2024. The Bulldogs are in the Top 8 for the first time in seven years and are not without a hope here. Canterbury have covered the last two clashes and have covered six of their last seven getting a start of 12.5 or more.
Betting Strategy
BACK CANTERBURY +15.5 @ $1.80 or better
Canterbury have covered the last two clashes and have covered six of their last seven getting a start of 12.5 or more.
PARRAMATTA EELS VS BRISBANE BRONCOS
Parramatta look absolutely cast at the moment and have lost the heart and soul of their team with Clint Gutherson out. Even getting a big start at home, the Eels look very skinny this week. Brisbane are without Adam Reynolds and Jesse Arthars but have covered 12 of their last 16 away from Suncorp and have covered 15 of 24 when favoured by more than a converted try. Brisbane have too much firepower for the Eels.
Betting Strategy
BACK BRISBANE -9.5 at $1.70 or better
Brisbane have too much firepower for the Eels.
WEST TIGERS VS NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Newcastle switched from being a major bet-against team when Kalyn Ponga was in the team to a major bet-on team in his absence with the market way overreacting, The Knights are 24-17 against the spread without Ponga while they are 48-62 with him.
The Knights have won and covered the last four meetings with the Tigers and with Aidan Sezer suspended, this is a great spot for Newcastle.
Betting Strategy
BACK NEWCASTLE -3.5 at $1.75 or better
The Knights have won and covered the last four meetings with the Tigers and with Aidan Sezer suspended, this is a great spot for Newcastle.
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA VS SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
South Sydney are in free fall right now and can barely field a team. Latrell Mitchell is back but Dean Hawkins, Jye Gray and Cameron Murray are all out hurt with Jacob Host suspended. These are dark days at Souths. The Rabbitohs are remarkably riding a 15-game non-cover streak and have covered just one of 12 off conceding 28-plus. The Dragons have covered 11 of 15 at Kogarah. This should be a rout.
Betting Strategy
BACK ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA -2.5 at $1.70 or better
South Sydney are in free fall right now and can barely field a team.
MELBOURNE STORM VS CRONULLA SHARKS
Melbourne have dominated this matchup and even without Ryan Papenhuyzen, should prove too much for a Sharks team facing their first true contest of the season. The Storm won the last meeting between these two 54-10 and have won six of the last seven clashes. The Sharks have long had the knock on them that they struggle against elite teams and four covers in their last 12 against Top 4 teams suggests that is true.
Betting Strategy
BACK MELBOURNE -4.5 at $1.80 or better
Melbourne have dominated this matchup and even without Ryan Papenhuyzen, should prove too much for a Sharks team facing their first true contest of the season.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS VS NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
There is no better total on the board this week than the Roosters and Warriors going under the number. Eight of the last 10 clashes between these two have finished on 36 or fewer with four of the last five clashes going under the number. The under is 11-4 when the Roosters play at Allianz and 28-15 when the Warriors play in the afternoon. This game has all the hallmarks of a low-scoring match.
Betting Strategy
BACK UNDER 42.5 at $1.75 or better
There is no better total on the board this week than the Roosters and Warriors going under the number.
GOLD COAST TITANS VS NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
There is no way the Cowboys should be favoured on the road. While they have managed some big performances, they have been wildly inconsistent and have covered just three of their last 11 when favoured off a loss. The Titans have won three of the last four clashes on the Gold Coast and won the last clash between the teams 22-13. The Titans have covered four straight and are being undervalued by the market.
Betting Strategy
LAY NORTH QUEENSLAND at $1.85 or shorter
There is no way the Cowboys should be favoured on the road
NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+
This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.
BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+
This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson's Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team's ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.
LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter
Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.
BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+
Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+
Best value top 4 market. Cronulla's draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.
LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter
Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season's finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+
Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year's Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.
BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+
Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.
LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter
Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.
NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE – NRL TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
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