3 minute read
Rich Ricci, Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins have combined to win the last two renewals of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle with Champagne Fever and Vautour.
Many punters will be banking on them registering the hat-trick with the exciting Douvan. Douvan was sent off as the heavily-backed 8/15 favourite on his Irish debut in a novice hurdle at Gowran Park, and he justified that market support in the style of an excellent prospect, looking something out of the ordinary as he cruised to a wide-margin win, beating Sizing John by 12 lengths. Sizing John had previously won his maiden hurdle in good style and, significantly, he went on to win a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas, paying a handsome compliment to Douvan.
Douvan’s next assignment was in the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown in January, a race Vautour had won the previous year. Unsurprisingly sent off a short-priced favourite, Douvan bolstered the positive impression he had created at Gowran, really impressing with his slick hurdling and high cruising speed, his rider motionless in the saddle throughout. True, Douvan was beating some horses who will be seen to better effect over further, but it’s impossible to knock the way in which he brushed them aside.
Douvan boasts a Timeform rating of 156P. To put that into some context, Vautour, an ultra-impressive, wide-margin winner of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last season, was rated 158p after his Cheltenham exploits. Douvan hasn’t had to come off the bridle on either of his two starts for Willie Mullins, and he’s clearly capable of achieving even more.
Douvan is probably the most likely winner, though whether he should be so much shorter than L’ami Serge – 2/1 versus 4/1 – is up for debate as Nicky Henderson’s novice has also shown very smart form. In fact, L’ami Serge is rated even higher than Douvan, his Timeform rating a lofty 157p. That figure derives from a smooth success in the Gerry Feilden, where L’ami Serge beat a couple of rivals who have since shown that they themselves were extremely well handicapped.
The Gerry Feilden is often an informative contest – Rock on Ruby won it in his Champion Hurdle-winning season – and the form could hardly have worked out better this year. Not only did the second-placed horse, Kilcooley, bolt up in a handicap next time, the third-placed Violet Dancer has since won the prestigious Betfair Hurdle. L’ami Serge has also done his bit for the form, easily brushing aside the Mullins-trained Killultagh Vic at Ascot (subsequently placed in a strong Grade 2) before winning the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle by ten lengths. It’s easy enough to pick holes in the form of L'ami Serge's two visually impressive novice wins – achieved in small fields on soft ground – but the Gerry Feilden performance is rock solid, and L’ami Serge has been winning in the style of a genuine top-level hurdler.
People may be put off L’ami Serge by the fact that he was beaten six times in France, however that’s largely irrelevant given the level of form he’s shown for the Henderson yard, and he thoroughly deserves his position towards the head of the market.
Looking beyond the big two, Jollyallan has created a positive impression over hurdles, winning on his first three outings and finding only the battle-hardened Garde la Victoire too strong at Sandown last time. Jollyallan actually went through that race like the best horse, leaving the impression that he’d have won had conditions not been so testing, but the inexperience he displayed off the bridle has to register as a concern with the Supreme in mind. Jollyallan is impeccably bred, evidently has loads of talent and is in excellent hands, though you get the feeling he might still need a bit of time to fill his frame and fulfil his potential. He simply looks a bit too raw to win a Supreme, particularly against horses of Douvan and L’ami Serge’s calibre.
It’s actually difficult to identify definite runners at this stage, but one horse that does look a likely participant is John Ferguson’s Flat convert, Qewy. Qewy is evidently well regarded – thrown into a Grade 2 on hurdling debut - and he was impressive when running away with an above-average novice hurdle at Newbury last time. Speed seems an asset for Qewy – he was useful over 10 furlongs on the Flat – and it’s unlikely he’ll be dragged out of his comfort zone at Cheltenham, no matter how fast they go, but he has looked a bit quirky in the past and will need to improve plenty.
Another Flat convert that would be of interest is Nichols Canyon who, like Douvan, is trained by Willie Mullins and has taken in a race that was won by Vautour last season. Nichols Canyon was a clear-cut winner of the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle, often Ireland’s premier Supreme trial, and is unbeaten on all three completed starts over hurdles. Nichols Canyon is blessed with plenty of stamina, however, and his owner, Graham Wylie, has spoken about him in similar terms to Inglis Drever, his star stayer of yesteryear. At this juncture, it would seem that the Neptune is Nichols Canyon’s most likely target.
If Nichols Canyon is aimed at the Neptune that could clear the way for Shaneshill and Vago Collonges to take their chance. Shaneshill was last season’s leading bumper horse, gaining revenge on his Cheltenham conqueror Silver Concorde at Punchestown, and he has taken well to hurdling, winning on debut before narrowly going down to the talented No More Heroes in the Navan Novice. Shaneshill has been campaigned at two and a half miles over hurdles, but he was essentially outstayed by No More Heroes having looked the likely winner and he won’t be inconvenienced by dropping in trip.
Vago Collonges is another that would be dropping in trip having raced exclusively at around two and a half miles over hurdles. However, he travels powerfully through his races and looks well worth a go at two miles based on how he shaped at Cheltenham last time. Paul Nicholls seemingly agrees as the Dovecote at Kempton has been nominated as the next target, though there’s obviously a chance he might bypass the Festival and wait for Aintree, where his strong-travelling style will be seen to good effect.
It is also worth giving a positive mention to Glingerburn as he’s returned from an extended absence in excellent heart, winning all three starts over hurdles and showing run-to-run progress. It was impressive how easily he brushed aside more experienced rivals in the Timeform Morebattle Hurdle and, though more will be needed, he’s entitled to a crack at the top level. With connections reluctant to nominate a target, though, he can’t be advised as an ante-post bet.
The Supreme is a difficult race to weigh up at this point. Both Douvan and L’ami Serge possess lofty Timeform ratings and have already shown a level of form in excess of what it takes to win an average renewal of the Supreme. Douvan is arguably the better long-term prospect of the pair, but he’s been priced accordingly and is difficult to back at 2/1 ante-post when you consider the aggressive trading policies employed by bookmakers at the Cheltenham Festival. He is likely to be a bigger price on the morning of the race. Shaneshill makes some appeal, as does the same owner’s Vago Collonges at a massive price, but they can’t be backed ante-post with running plans unclear, so a small bet on the standard-setting L’ami Serge is probably the best play.
Recommendation:
0.5pt L'ami Serge in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle
