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There’s little real change to report this week, with the only division that looks much different being the staying novice chasers, though No More Heroes (155p) and More of That (151p) still lead the way.
Black Hercules has jumped from 144p to 151p following his ready defeat of Definitly Red (142 from 131p) in a listed event over three miles on heavy ground at Warwick last Saturday. Black Hercules was near the top of his generation in both bumpers (119) and over hurdles (147), and it looks like he’s going to take equally high rank among the staying novice chasers this season.
Former point winner Black Hercules jumped with great accuracy when making a winning chasing debut at Navan in December, and it was the same story at Warwick where he tanked along and pulled himself into lead second before making the rest from some smart rivals. Black Hercules will be of interest in whichever race he contests at Cheltenham—his flop in the Albert Bartlett there last term can be put down to him not enjoying an ideal preparation (off three months prior)—though the National Hunt Chase (now 6/1 favourite) looks ideal for him.
Another who looks bound for the ‘four-miler’ at Cheltenham is Roi des Francs, who has won both his outings since being beaten by Monksland on his chasing debut in November. Roi des Francs followed up last month's Fairyhouse maiden success in determined style in a Grade 2 at Naas last Saturday, edging his rating up from 143p to 147pin the process, and, while he only had two rivals to beat, that the runner-up was another Mullins horse in the odds-on Pont Alexandre (146p) suggests he’s well on his way to proving a very smart chaser.
A Grade 1 winner as a novice hurdler (also third in Neptune), Pont Alexandre had made a winning chase debut at Punchestown last month on his first start for almost 1000 days—some effort from horse and trainer!—and the overall feeling is that he’s likely to have a bigger performance in him in due course as long as he remains sound. This was also his first run over three miles, which opens up his options.
Roi des Francs was sent off favourite to give his connections a third win in the ‘Martin Pipe’ at last year’s Cheltenham Festival, following Sir des Champs in 2011 and Don Poli in 2014, but he could finish only third to his stablemate Killultagh Vic. Killultagh Vic, who went on to beat current World Hurdle favourite Thistlecrack in a Grade 1 at Punchestown last April, has taken to chasing with as much promise as Roi des Francs, and he made it two over two over the larger obstacles in the most extraordinary of circumstances in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown last Sunday, a race won in recent years by such as Sir des Champs, Djakadam and Vautour.
Killultagh Vic tanked along in front and was in control when slithering on landing after the last (jumped the fence too well if anything), which caused him to drop to third behind useful pair Blair Perrone and Lord Scoundrel and his rider Ruby Walsh to lose an iron, but he staged a miraculous comeback to lead again inside the final 100 yards. Killultagh Vic will head to Cheltenham with leading claims in either the JLT or RSA, with the current betting suggesting he’s more likely to go for the former race (7/2 favourite).
Another smart performer from the Mullins yard to win last weekend was Sempre Medici (154) who landed long odds-on in a weak Grade 3 Limestone Lad Hurdle at Naas. He could still have more to offer given he’s only six and just eight starts into his hurdling career, but he’s currently only fifth in the stable’s pecking order for the Champion Hurdle according to both the betting and Timeform ratings—behind Faugheen (170), Arctic Fire (168), Nichols Canyon (160p) and Wicklow Brave (156).
Don Cossack’s win in the second win in the Grade 2 Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles last Thursday didn’t please everyone, which is fair enough given he was probably first off the bridle, but he typically found plenty for pressure and won going away in the end. The run served its purpose for the highest-rated jumps horse in training (183), restoring his confidence after his fall in the King George, and to our mind he remains the one to beat for the Gold Cup, with the intended application of cheekpieces there certainly no negative (tends to hit a flat spot and his half-brother Dubai King won wearing them).
Russe Blanc has done all his winning over jumps wearing cheekpieces—though you can’t always see them, nor his sheepskin noseband, given his colouring!—and he raised his Timeform rating from 125 to 134 when winning the Classic Chase at Warwick (from a career-high mark of 127). Russe Blanc clearly had no problem with the three-furlong longer trip than he’d tried before, even in deep conditions, and races like the Eider Chase, Grand National Trial at Haydock and Midlands National are all options for him, while the fact he’s previously finished a good second on good ground means the Grand National is not off limits either.
Midnight Prayer was racing just a week on from missing the Welsh Grand National with a cough and ran a blinder to finish second, almost giving the Alan King yard its third win in the race. He’s been credited with improving by 1 lb (now 142).
The valuable handicaps at Leopardstown last Sunday went to Henry Higgins (hurdle, improved from 133 to 142) and Empire of Dirt (chase, gone from 139 to 141), both worthy winners on the day, though in truth there were plenty of eye-catchers in each race; Desoto County, After Rain (finished in front of the winner in a hot race at Fairyhouse the time before) and Ivan Grozny (carrying top weight on his first start for 21 months) perhaps the most obvious in the hurdle race and Fine Rightly and Blood Cotil in the chase.
The Simon Munir and Isaac Soude-owned pair L’Ami Serge (148p after two wins from two outing over fences, though still has work to do catch 160P-rated Douvan, who is set to run this Sunday) and Sceau Royal (remains on 136) should also be mentioned, as should the Mullins pair Thomas Hobson (now 140p) and Open Eagle (now 137p), who finished first and second in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Warwick, and Carruthers’ full brother Flintham who regained the progressive thread (up to 145) when winning a handicap hurdle on the same card.
Finally, Aspen Colorado made a winning debut in the bumper at Leopardstown on Sunday and has been rated 105p. He looks sure to improve, particularly on better ground, for J. P. McManus and Aidan (Joseph) O’Brien, though quotes as short as 10/1 for the Champion Bumper do look rather premature (beat fellow newcomers).
