3 minute read

Ben Fearnley takes you through all of the latest Timeform ratings after Aintree's Grand National meeting, as well as Leopardstown's first Flat action of the season.

Thanks to the inclusion of multiple Grade 1-winning chasers including the likes of Holywell, Sir des Champs and Silviniaco Conti, as well as last year’s classy winner Many Clouds, who was seemingly better than ever in the run-up to Aintree this season, the 2016 Crabbie's Grand National was widely regarded as the highest-quality renewal yet, and a BHA mark of 145 was required to even get a run in the end.

Despite the high number of graded winners in this year’s National, it was a maiden who won – which was the first instance of this happening since 1884.

That said, although Rule The World was lacking a win over fences going into the race, he was a very smart hurdler (second in the Neptune in 2013) and may well have achieved plenty over fences before now but for some serious injury problems (has twice fractured pelvis). Rule The World is now Timeform-rated 156 over fences, while The Last Samuri – who himself emerged with bundles of credit after finishing a gallant second – is now 158+.

While time is on The Last Samuri’s side as an eight-year-old, he is unlikely to get a better opportunity to win the National given he was 12 lb ‘well-in’ at the weights. Vics Canvas also put up a remarkable performance in third (148) given he almost unshipped his jockey at first Becher’s – and what a recovery from Robbie Dunne! - and he became the first 13-year-old to be placed in the race since Rondetto in 1969.

With the ground coming up soft for only the second time this century (by Timeform’s calculations), the Irish-trained runners came to the fore, with just one British-trained runner amongst the first six home, and a more cautious few of the form has been taken from a ratings perspective. Rule The World’s performance was rated inferior to the likes of Many Clouds last year and Neptune Collonges in 2012, who both ran to 164.

The high-quality pre-race feel of the National was a running theme throughout Aintree, and – thanks in no small part to Willie Mullins’ attempts to win the British trainers’ title – there were some top-class performers on display throughout the whole of the Aintree Festival.

Thursday

After his fall three out at Cheltenham last time, Cue Card was on the comeback trial in a fantastic renewal of the Bowl, which also featured the second and third from that Gold Cup in Djakadam and Don Poli. This was Cue Card’s third Grade 1 win of the campaign after the Betfair Chase and the King George, and it was his most emphatic yet (this term), beating the more prominently ridden Don Poli into second by nine lengths and eased down towards the line. Cue Card is Timeform-rated 182, 1 lb behind Gold Cup winner Don Cossack, and the two could potentially meet for the third time this season at Punchestown in three weeks’ time.

Arzal showed the benefit of missing the Festival when routing the field from the front in the Manifesto Novices’ Chase, achieving a career-best Timeform rating of 156 in the process. The form is held back somewhat by some of his rivals underperforming faced with such a test at the trip, including L’Ami Serge (who shaped well but whose stamina seemed stretched, now Timeform-rated 148+), Sizing John (seemed to find this coming too soon after Cheltenham) and Garde La Victoire, who once again was let down by his jumping and loses his ‘p’ as a result (now rated 148+).

Annie Power’s 18-length victory in the Aintree Hurdle was her best yet on Timeform ratings, and she is now rated 170+, putting her second to only the injured Faugheen (176) in the division’s hierarchy, moving her past stablemate Arctic Fire (168). Though the rivals that re-opposed her from the Champion Hurdle three weeks earlier underperformed (or fell, in the case of The New One) it is a testament to Annie Power’s durability and versatility that she was able to perform to her best over this different trip. Fresher than most, she may well be in line for a memorable Cheltenham/Aintree/Punchestown treble.

Earlier on, Apple’s Jade put up at exceptional performance in the Anniversary Hurdle, beating Ivanovich Gorbatov (who beat the winner in the Triumph) by 41 lengths. With the margin of victory so high, and the fact Ivanovich Gorbatov was clearly below form (could have been the softer ground or the fact he got worked up beforehand with problems with his tongue strap) this is difficult form to assess, and Apple’s Jade is now Timeform-rated 148p. It will be intriguing to see where she goes next, as she is clearly a filly on a sharp upward curve.

Friday

After favourite Limini failed to reproduce the form of her Cheltenham Festival win (remains 142p), Buveur d’Air did not have to improve on his third in the Supreme to take the Top Novices Hurdle. Buveur d’Air is Timeform-rated 152p, and showed a likable attitude to prevail by a neck to the well positioned Petit Mouchoir, who is now rated 150 after a much-improved performance.

Native River benefitted from a positive ride from Richard Johnson in the Mildmay, and is now Timeform-rated 152p, though the form – like that of the RSA won by Blaklion, who was below-form here in third – is not likely to prove strong, given the absence of the most exciting pair in the division this season, More of That and the ill-fated No More Heroes.

The form of the Melling, too, is not likely to be all that strong given the fact that 1/5 favourite Vautour put in a rare jumping error and fell at the ninth fence. However, God’s Own is still worth crediting with some improvement as he produced a career-best on ratings (now Timeform-rated 166) to fight off Al Ferof, who was a little below his best, turning out quickly (for him) after Cheltenham.

Last year’s Sefton was won with a much improved performance from this year’s star staying hurdler Thistlecrack, and the lightly raced Ballyoptic found another chunk of progress to score this year, gamely fending off Bellshill – who got his career back on track, now Timeform-rated 144 – to make it three from three over hurdles after he was well beaten in a bumper on his rules debut on Boxing Day. Ballyoptic showed smart form here (now Timeform-rated 145p) and there is every chance he will make up into a leading novice chaser next season.

Saturday

Thistlecrack has met with defeat just once in six starts after winning last year’s Sefton, and he completed a five-timer with ease in the Liverpool Hurdle on Saturday, not having to be anywhere near his World Hurdle-winning best to beat Shaneshill by seven lengths. He remains Timeform-rated 174p, and it is hard to see what will challenge him next season if he stays in this division.

Willie Mullins’ British trainers' title claims were dealt a blow when Vautour fell, and for a moment it looked as though another of his Aintree ‘bankers’ Yorkhill may be turned over in the Mersey, after he failed to settle and made rather hard work of beating Le Prezien (rated 144). Regardless of this run, Yorkhill (163P) remains a top-class prospect for next season and hopefully his disconcerting lack of application will be something that disappears as he matures.

Unlike Yorkhill – who was below the level he showed at the Cheltenham Festival – Douvan was even better, and is now Timeform-rated 180p which puts him on the same level as his stablemate Vautour in just his first season over fences (same Timeform-rating as Sprinter Sacre finished his novice season on). Alisier d’Irlande set a good gallop in an attempt to get the 2/13 favourite beaten and ended up tailed off, but The Game Changer – ridden for optimum position – seemed to run right up to his best (155) – and the way Douvan brushed him aside in such effortless fashion means he is one of the most exciting novice chasers seen in Timeform’s experience, likely to be a match for virtually any of the established top-rank chasers next season.

***

The end of the Aintree Festival means that the Flat season now steps up a gear, with Newmarket’s Craven meeting later this week, and Leopardstown’s first Flat meeting of the season on Sunday gone.

The stand-out performer on Sunday was undoubtedly Harzand in the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes, who found plenty of improvement for his maiden win at Cork in March and again seemed to relish the heavy ground, being very much suited by the emphasis on stamina at the trip. Harzand is now Timeform-rated 114p, and is sure to progress again when his stamina is further drawn out. He is around 16/1 third favourite for the Derby, behind US Army Ranger (95P) and Midterm (93P) in the market. Aidan O’Brien saddled the second, third and fourth here, and it would be no surprise to see his runners perform better in time, particularly Ryan Moore’s choice Cook Islands (100p) who found the test on this ground too much, and Idaho (113p) who was outstayed by the winner but impressed with the way he went through the race.

Alice Springs (last seen finishing second at the Breeders’ Cup meeting) was given a lot to do in the Group 3 1000 Guineas Trial and had no chance of catching the well-ridden front pair which was headed by Jet Setting (106), who improved, though was seen to maximum effect with a big positional advantage over most of the field. Overall, the form is fairly easy to pick holes in due to the way the race unfolded.

The listed 2000 Guineas Trial took a hit when the standard-setting Johannes Vermeer was withdrawn, but Aidan O’Brien held the key nonetheless, with Black Sea (now Timeform-rated 104p) narrowly getting the better of the dead-heating Stenographer (103p) and True Solitaire (104), with the first two named being on more of an upward curve than the latter, and are therefore of more interest going forward.