3 minute read
Racing And Sports Pty Ltd Executive Director Gary Crispe has developed a model he hopes will take the guess work out of buying a yearling.
Having succeeded with ratings to predict the outcomes of races, Racing And Sports Pty Ltd Executive Director Gary Crispe has now turned his hand to predicting the future of unraced yearlings.
Crispe is internationally renowned through Timeform Australia and developed the ratings that are used by punters through the ever expanding Racing And Sports website.
As the racing world expands, Crispe has developed a model that he hopes will take some of the guess work out of buying yearlings.
In recent years Crispe has been putting his money where his mouth is developing a model to purchase shares in several yearlings that, to date, is showing positive signs.
Crispe has had two recent winners – North Star Lass in Sydney with the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable and at The Valley when Winnertakesitall scored for Peter and Paul Snowden.
Winnertakesitall secures her first win @SnowdenRacing1 pic.twitter.com/0o584sqZ7E
— 7HorseRacing (@7horseracing) July 30, 2022
Winnertakesitall will chase black-type success in the Group 3 Quezette Stakes over 1100 metres at Caulfield on Saturday.
"We have used ratings for years on the predictive side for punting, so it occurred to me that maybe on the breeding side something could be found in using ratings in an analysis model that could be used in a predictive sense as a guide to highlighting a yearling that could be successful or not on a racetrack," Crispe said.
"It's something I have been working on for a few years on and off. I've been refining the parameters and limits for the model, and I basically have the framework for now.
"What it centres around is a complete Racing And Sports Ratings analysis of each yearling I look at, going through the pedigree from the sire to the dam, the dam sire, grand sires and looking at all the various crosses and patterns within the pedigree, what it's produced in terms of performance which is measured by a Racing And Sports Rating.
"A lot of pedigrees have the wins listed, but all wins are not equal. So what our ratings do, is to put those wins into perspective in terms of a performance measure against the various linkages."
Crispe says the model is not foolproof, nothing ever is in racing, and tweaks are continually being made.
Around 40 data entry points have been developed in the model that Crispe says helps him ascertain whether a yearling may have it, or not.
Crispe has shares in yearlings with several leading trainers all that have had his breeding model run over them before taking a share.
He said once a yearling has gone through the trainer's processes before purchase, Crispe then comes in off the back of that work to put his yearling model over the top to see whether he will take a share.
"And what I am doing is putting in money out of my own pocket because that is the only way you can really prove something," Crispe said.
"It's very early days yet but I've had some winners and having a lot of fun."
Crispe has hopes North Star Lass may develop into a Group 1 Flight Stakes prospect having been successful over 1100m on heavy ground as a two-year-old.
Nice win by North Star Lass in R1 at Warwick Farm for @GaiWaterhouse1 and Adrian Bott!
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) March 23, 2022
A patient ride by @clarkyhk! pic.twitter.com/M0IIbfpPa5
