3 minute read

Plenty of strong performances on Saturday that will prove key pointers to the rest of the Autumn.

MELBOURNE

Immediacy was one of the wins of the day, remaining unbeaten with a powerful win in the Group 2 Autumn Classic (1800m). The win was visually impressive and certainly a new peak at 105+ for the horse. He's now effectively improved ~10 pounds at both starts since his debut win, and the + is key.

105 measures up fairly well against recent Autumn Classic winners. It's below the 109 Pericles ran last year, but ahead of Castlereagh Kid (103) and Parure (100) the two years prior. Adelaide Ace (108) and Enjoying (109+) also ran good ratings in the past five years to win.

Immediacy is headed towards the Rosehill Guineas next start, which is what Pericles did last year. Pericles improved a further eight pounds to run to 117 in the Rosehill Guineas but was nosed out by Lindermann.

Immediacy just give every impression he'll relish further trips though compared to Pericles who looked more of a miler. To win a Rosehill Guineas, Immediacy will likely need to improve (at the very least) another 10 pounds, likely 15. That's certainly not impossible and his sectional strength on Saturday gives him hope, but this race typically doesn't hold up well in Sydney, and as we'll touch on later, there will be horses rated close to 120 off a Randwick Guineas that Immediacy will need to match.

Hayasugi became just the fifth horse and second filly to complete a clean sweep of the Blue Diamond Series, winning the Preview, Prelude and of course the Blue Diamond Stakes with a big win on Saturday.

She's run to 113 which is the lowest rating for a filly since True Jewels in 2001. It equals the rating Lyre ran to (albeit she ran 113+) in 2019, the most recent filly to win the race. It sits in line with a fairly standard winner of a Blue Diamond in recent years, with Daumier (113) and Little Brose (114) the last two winners. Hayasugi, as a filly, has done well to run up to that level and at weight-for-age would be rated higher than that pair.

In terms of a Golden Slipper tilt, she's absolutely worthy of a crack. This sort of rating won't win a Slipper, but it won't be far off it. In what looks a strong year for the two-year-olds, especially the Sydney ones, I'd say she probably has to improve another length or two to be in the finish, and another 3-4 to be a strong winning chance, but she'll head there with some sort of hope.

SYDNEY

Speaking of two-year-olds, Straight Charge beat Espionage in the Silver Slipper and returned a rating of 113, identical to Hayasugi in the Blue Diamond.

The last horse to do the Silver/Golden Slipper double was Farnan in 2020 who ran to 116 in the Silver Slipper before improving narrowly to win the Todman at 117 and the Golden Slipper at 122.

Cylinder won the Silver Slipper last year, running to 111 and would end up starting favourite in the Golden Slipper. Best Of Bordeaux also ran to 111 while Home Affairs only rated 106 in his Silver Slipper win.

This puts Straight Charge and Espionage firmly in the Golden Slipper picture but both will still need to improve to beat Storm Boy, who just gives the indication of handling a strong 1200m and beyond more than the others.

You'd love (if not already on) for Storm Boy to be beaten in Saturday's Skyline Stakes before exploding in the Slipper and getting a decent price to find out.

Celestial Legend announced himself as one of the better three-year-olds with a powerful win in the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes (1400m). He's taken his time to get beyond 1200m but always gave the indication of wanting much further and exploded out to 1400m, running to a rating of 116+.

Naturally the Hobartville is the best guide to the Randwick Guineas, and a rating of 116 is about where you want to be. Brandenburg is the only horse in the past five years to run below that while Osipenko matched it last year.

That said, the likes of Anamoe, The Autumn Sun and Aegon were all rated 117 (with varying levels of +) and all started hard favourites in the Guineas, with Anamoe and The Autumn Sun both odds-on.

Compared to a horse like Immediacy from earlier, rated 105+ and likely going straight to the Rosehill Guineas, Celestial Legend at 116+, who will start near enough to favourite in the Randwick Guineas, has a fair edge.

By Dundeel, he really should be going all the way through to the ATC Derby and I find it tough to say anything (including Tom Kitten, who the jury is out on) can turn the tables from the Hobartville. The Randwick Guineas should be Celestial Legend v Militarize and if the market continues to favour Militarize, I'll be backing Celestial Legend.