3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Wednesday's Hawkesbury meeting. Selections based on a heavy track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 1:25PM BLACKTOWN WORKERS CLUB GROUP HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
5. Tiz Invincible was heavily backed on debut in the Group 3 Black Opal Stakes (1200m), and her run was full of merit. The filly raced four wide throughout in a fast tempo, and to her credit, she never shirked her task to the line. Further, that race rated highly relative to the day, and the margins throughout confirmed the form. The Ciaron Maher & David Eustace trained galloper is a nice type with quality, and she brings a dominant last-start figure. Hard to beat.
Dangers: 1. Californian raced greenly but won well in his first start at this track 13 days ago. The colt clocked one of the fastest final 600ms splits of the meeting, and the rise in distance is ideal. He brings a race experience edge, and expect him to run well. Debutante 6. Bright Red is an interesting runner who has trialled well and looks set to sprint well fresh. She is a key late-market watch. 4. Zardozi savaged the line to score first-up, and the form out of that race has since been confirmed with a subsequent winner.
How to play it: Tiz Invincible WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
5. Tiz Invincible was heavily backed on debut in the Group 3 Black Opal Stakes (1200m), and her run was full of merit. The filly raced four wide throughout in a fast tempo, and to her credit, she never shirked her task to the line. Further, that race rated highly relative to the day, and the margins throughout confirmed the form. The Ciaron Maher & David Eustace trained galloper is a nice type with quality, and she brings a dominant last-start figure. Hard to beat.
Dangers: 1. Californian raced greenly but won well in his first start at this track 13 days ago. The colt clocked one of the fastest final 600ms splits of the meeting, and the rise in distance is ideal. He brings a race experience edge, and expect him to run well. Debutante 6. Bright Red is an interesting runner who has trialled well and looks set to sprint well fresh. She is a key late-market watch. 4. Zardozi savaged the line to score first-up, and the form out of that race has since been confirmed with a subsequent winner.
How to play it: Tiz Invincible WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Race 2 - 2:00PM RICHMOND CLUB MAIDEN HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
2. Beautiful Heart is a consistent type and raced well first-up at Kembla. The filly wasn't suited to the sit/sprint race shape, but to her credit, she built through her gears and ran on into second, clocking one of the meeting's fastest final 200m splits. Further, the late market trade suggested she would improve from the run and her ratings/sectional profile supports this. The three-year-old can settle closer up in distance, receives winkers for the first time and champion jockey Joao Moreira rides. She is also proven on the rain-affected ground, placing second to Listed winner Buenos Noches. Expect a bold showing.
Dangers: 5. Commando Jack is rock-hard fit and ran an honest third-last start at this track. He brings the best last-start figure and has a positive map. 8. Marelle had factors against last start and can bounce back here. Her peak figure came on heavy ground, and she could have the last shot. 1. Whatadilemma was brave in defeat in a high-rating race that has since produced three subsequent winners. He has trialled well enough between runs and maps to control the pace.
How to play it: Beautiful Heart WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 3 - 2:35PM CLARENDON TAVERN HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
2. Alcyone is a proven first-up performer and has trialled well in preparation for this assignment. The gelding has gone through the line full of energy in both heats and wasn't extended. He profiles well for this event with a favourable draw, and some of his peak performances have come on heavy ground. Expect him to sprint fresh and be hard to hold out.
Dangers: 6. Artic Thunder wasn't suited first-up at Warwick Farm with a hefty weight but made significant ground and clocked strong closing splits. He will be fitter for that and can settle closer. Kinloch ran evenly first-up and will improve up in distance. Further, James McDonald rides and heavy ground suits. Market watch 1. Kiss The Bride who resumes and add 4. Mystery Shot to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Alcyone WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Race 4 - 3:10PM XXXX GOLD HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
8. Compassionate tried hard first-up at Doomben in a stronger grade and hit the line well. The mare profiles well for this event and brings solid form lines. Further, she has multiple winning figures and the anticipated genuine tempo suits where she can build through her gears and have the last shot. In addition, she maps well, and her best form is on wet ground.
Dangers: 5. Passistas has trialled well enough and has a solid record at this track. Both 3. Cap Estel and 6. Bowery Breeze may need more ground but expect them to be savaging the line. 4. More The Merrier has a fantastic record but has been well-found in early markets.
How to play it: Compassionate WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 5 - 3:45PM BLAKES MARINE HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
5. Pungo resumed a solid winner this campaign clocking strong closing splits at Canterbury but raced slightly below market expectations second-up at Warwick Farm. The three-year-old had to chase a fast tempo throughout and battled on ok to hold third. He is still lightly raced, improving and has a positive race setup in this event. The gelding maps to have all favours, and his most dominant win came on a heavy rated surface. Moreover, he has a fantastic SP profile and, with even luck, will be fighting out the finish.
Dangers: 1. Duke Of Buckingham was honest second-up and never shirked his task to the line. The gelding has a strong platform and is set to peak third-up over his preferred distance. 3. Pretty Amazing comes through the same race and hit the line hard, albeit run to suit. She will appreciate the bigger track and revels in the testing conditions. 10. Super Chilled had factors against first-up, adding 8. Flower Moon to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Pungo WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 6 - 4:20PM PIONEER SERVICES HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
9. Shadows Of Love has comeback improved this prep, and she did it on both ends last start running time at Gosford. The filly ran her rival's ragged, leading at a genuine tempo, and then accelerated away, clocking one of the day's fastest final 600m splits. The Kim Waugh trained galloper is on an upwards ratings spiral and has a positive race setup here. She brings a fitness edge relative to some of her key rivals, and expect her to roll forward and give a sight. Each-way.
Dangers: 8. La Pittrice's final few bounds had merit when scoring first-up at Warwick Farm 21 days ago. The three-year-old savaged the line to score, and all key indicators suggest the rise in trip will be ideal. She has a tricky draw but may get the track pattern to suit and represents value. 3. Olentia is a nice type and has trialled well. She brings strong form lines and figures to this event and deserves to be a favourite, but she has been well-found in early markets. 12. Union Army can sprint fresh and has gone through the line full of energy in her recent trials. 2. Rediener will be fitter and add 10. Semana to wider exotics.
How to play it: Shadows Of Love E/W ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 7 - 4:55PM THE LAWN SHED HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
1. Capo Strada was given no peace when resuming at Warwick Farm and worked three-wide out on a limb in a solid tempo. The gelding had to give away a fitness edge to key rivals; to his credit, he wanted to keep finding the line. Further, his run was full of merit, holding on for second, and that race rated highly relative to the meeting. The Godolphin galloper receives a significant barrier change allowing him to find a more suitable rhythm. His ratings/sectional profile suggests he will only benefit from that first-up performance. He is a consistent type and expect a bold showing.
Dangers: 11. Kay Teez Command has had 494 days off the scene but has trialled well. She is a lightly raced improver and a key late-market watch. 12. Queen Yuna had all favours breaking through for her maiden, bringing a competitive last-start figure. She is another on-pacer that can give a sight. 9. Bartoselli and 10. Invincible Vision come through the same race as Capo Strada and are both rock-hard fit. 3. Sandpaper has strong form lines and can bounce back.
How to play it: Capo Strada WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Best Bet: Race 2 # 2 - Beautiful Heart
Next Best: Race 7 # 1 - Capo Strada
Best Value: Race 6 # 11 - Shadows Of Love
