3 minute read
Best bets for the final meeting of the Ascot racing season.
It's the final day of the Ascot Racing season and the Rogan Josh Stakes for the stayers is the feature event on the card,
Over 2100m, the race is a very intersting race to analyse with the tempo of the event the big factor in how the results pan out.
The tempo of the race is key to the chances of Perth Cup winner Casino Seventeen, who would prefer a solid tempo after being out-sprinted in the Diggers Cup (1800m) last time out.
While tasked with 62 kilograms is a big ask, he's been forced to carry that weight his last three starts and almost won the Bunbury Cup in a strongly run affair.
The Rogan Josh on Saturday appears a very different set up for Casino Seventeen though, as he'll jump from a better barrier and can settle much closer than he did last time out.
Ghobella is the main danger having beat Casino Seventeen by two lengths in the Diggers Cup and she's already shown she can stay the trip.
The daughter of Blackfriars is almost the opposite of her market danger, preferring a sit-and-sprint style event where she was placed in the Pinjarra Cup over 2300m.
Casino Seventeen and Ghobella are the clear top picks in the 2100m event, but the first 400-600m of the event will be pivotal to both horses chances.
I'm keen to back a couple of three-year-old's on Saturday, but I'm most keen on the Darren McAuliffe-trained COOL MEMORY in Race 5.
The son of Impending stepped out to the mile for the first time on April 27th and ran to a new peak Racing and Sports rating in the process, albeit beaten 0.3 lengths.
He drops in weight for today's assignment and he maps to get a similar run to what he did last start when running a new peak.
On Patrol is the main danger, but Cool Memory beat him by 3 lengths last start and not only does he meet On Patrol better at the weights, Joe Azzopardi should have the tactical advantage as well.
If he can repeat the effort he produced last time out, Cool Memory can be going one better this time around.
In the opening event on the card, the Grant and Alana Williams-trained LOST CITY looks a nice filly on her way up.
Whilst beaten on resumption, Lost City showed enough to suggest she's in for a solid campaign and she ticks plenty of boxes from an inside draw.
This is tougher than what she was up against last start, but she has plenty of upside and she was a massive improve second-up in her first campaign.
If she can follow the same trajectory she showed in her debut preparation, she should be getting the job done in the opener.
While not a three-year-old, SOWAR in Race 7 looks to have some good value around him.
The son of Sepoy looked as though he was run off his feet dropping back to the mile last time out after a strong effort over this course and distance two starts back, resulting in a new peak R&S rating.
Getting back up to the 1800m looks ideal and Holly Watson has never missed the placings when aboard the Mitch Pateman-trained gelding.
He can settle a little close from an inside alley and while he may need luck turning for home, if he gets the splits at the right time then he can put away his rivals and the current price seems over the odds at the time of writing.
The Best From The West
Best Bet: Race 5 Number 4 COOL MEMORY @ $3.60*
Next Best: Race 1 Number 6 LOST CITY @ $2.60*
Value Play: Race 7 Number 4 SOWAR @ $8.50*
*Prices correct as of 4:30pm, May 9.
