3 minute read
We Melbourne punters return to Caulfield this weekend but it is who is not going to Caulfield that creates some interest.
Lane, Shinn, Kah, Williams, Stackshouse, Mertens, Egan and more are notable in their absence, the carnival in Adelaide acquiring their sort after services, while Zahra, Dee and Mott go north.
This creates opportunities at home. Enter Ethan Brown.
Brown's name comes up among those names when analysing jockey performance in Victoria in 2024 and those who keep an eye on such things will hardly be surprised to see him there. He has been a top numbers jock from just about day one. He has real talent and is a real value add for the horses that he rides.
The pick of those he rides on Saturday comes up in race three and we at the Melbourne Mail are keen to back Brown to make it count.
Our Red Morning drew widest first up and never got into the race - a total non event. It was not entirely dissimilar to the start of her last campaign when she had no luck but was able to quickly right that wrong and string three wins on the bounce.
On Saturday she has a trio of key factors in her favour:
First, our man Ethan Brown, improving horses he switches aboard 3lbs on average in 2024 and outriding the market both overall and with favourites on which he has won seven of his past 10 to leave him three wins ahead of the game.
Second, barrier 12 last time becomes the inside draw this time and gives Our Red Morning a chance to get into the race. She will still need racing luck but the man mentioned above is booked to take care of that.
And third, she finds a race that won't take a huge amount of winning, particularly with a couple of others that have similar ratings turning up without the same advantages as above.
All this adds up to $4.40 and better being worth playing.
The last on the card is a bit of a raffle. 18 acceptors can only boast one last-start win between them and that win, from Place Of Gold, was 175 days ago.
It's patchy stuff and it may just be won at the margins. Something like a good ride from a good jock could prove the difference so again we look to Brown and his mount Cardigan Queen has enough going for her to fall in.
Solid each way prices are on offer and while she has a poor pattern and has been hit-and-miss as a result of that her best efforts are strong for the class and she was a nice winner at the course and distance last prep.
That winning rating would go a long way to taking care of this ragtag lot and again the chance to back Brown to make and take his chances appeals.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 3 #4 Our Red Morning @ $4.40
Each Way Play: Race 10 #6 Cardigan Queen @ $13.00
