3 minute read
Spring has sprung and the carnival has swung - we move into summer and out to Ballarat for one of the biggest Cups on the country circuit.
I suspect that the Busuttin and Young team will be begging for the Melbourne Mail to leave them alone after a couple of frustrating weeks. Muramasa was put up last week and came down with the dreaded EIPH just seven days on from Foxy Cleopatra being tipped only to come unstuck and run second in her hometown cup at Cranbourne.
Numbers point to the Ballarat Cup taking every bit as much winning as its Cranbourne cousin and on face value Foxy had her chance. We can move on given that. Leave her be. Or....
In the famous words of Michael Corleone; just when I thought I was out... they pull me back in.
Foxy Cleopatra came through a very slowly-run race at Flemington first-up and the Cranbourne Cup developed into anything but - the leader pouring it on and turning it in a stern test over the mile.
That was a big chance race-to-race and it might have caught Foxy by surprise. Of course, it can always go one of two ways, but a quick glance back at her last campaign shows that she has gone the right way in much the same spot in the past.
Foxy went from slow to fast, first-up to second-up, before using the fast mile as a platform to a 2000m peak third-up.
That the third-placed Just Folk has already bounced off the Cranbourne platform to peak and win means little but it doesn't hurt.
Foxy Cleopatra doesn't have ratings beyond the likes of Young Werther or Aintnodeeldun, and surely a step in the right direction will be required to win, but she takes that step more often than prices suggest. The final word on the matter can go to our friend Signor Corleone: "give me one last chance to redeem myself and I will sin no more."
For an each-way play we roll back to the third on the card, another race not short of chances but with one at the bottom, Explosive Thinker, who appeals as one to keep on side at double-figure prices.
The knocks here are clear. 243 days off the scene with form over further than 1100m and the wide barrier might trick things up a bit.
But the positives are there as well. The maiden win said he had real talent, the jump out said the current version (now gelded) retains all that talent (maybe more), and the stable are humming along at the moment with plenty of winners going in.
It's enough to overlook the negatives and have a bet.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 8 #8 Foxy Cleopatra @ $5.00
Each Way Play: Race 3 #16 Explosive Thinker @ $11.00
