3 minute read

The Launceston features continue this week, with the return of The Inevitable in the Conquering Stakes.

It was good to kick off the Tasmanian Summer with a winner in the Newmarket and First Accused fronts up again in Wednesday's Listed Conquering Stakes (1400m).

He got the right run on speed there and did enough but this will be a whole different challenge as Tassie star The Inevitable makes his return after an interesting mainland Spring campaign.

He was outstanding in his first two runs especially in Sydney, charging home behind Golden Mile in the Group 2 Theo Marks Stakes (1300m) and unlucky not to go close in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap (1600m).

The sectionals he was running off some very slow tempos were bordering on elite and the ratings he's been running see him many lengths clear of his rivals.

The lowest rating The Inevitable ran in four starts last campaign was 111 and the highest 116. For context, First Accused won the Newmarket running to 95, and they meet on level weights.

When coming back from injury The Inevitable clearly proved that he was a class above these horses, winning every race he ran in over the Tasmanian Summer, including this race last year as a $1.50 favourite, with $1.60 on offer at Ladbrokes this time around.

He wasn't winning by huge margins but never really looked like losing and was given very confident rides in a few of them, with First Accused placing in 5/6 runs behind The Inevitable.

Off the win in the Newmarket he naturally looks the biggest danger again but this is a big ask and a placing seems best.

If there were to be an improver I think Alpine Wolf is it. He was hard in the market in the Newmarket first up but struggled, running seventh after settling just off midfield.

He's the one that looks much better suited to 1400m, especially if they go forward from the wide barrier. He's got the speed to put himself in the race and give the favourite a race at his best.

He's at $9/2.15 with Ladbrokes compared to First Accused at $6.50 and I mentioned that the price was the only reason I backed First Accused in the Newmarket as there's almost nothing between them.

You could do worse than Alpine Wolf to place at better than even money but The Inevitable really should be cleaning these up again.

Conquering Stakes Bet

#6 Alpine Wolf (PLC) at $2.15 with Ladbrokes