3 minute read

The Inevitable is coming off a shock loss first up. Does he win Friday's Tasmanian Stakes?

The punters who took the opening price of $1.60+ for The Inevitable first up in the Conquering Stakes would've felt pretty good pre-race as he was crunched in betting to start $1.30.

That feeling would've faded quickly into the home straight as he was left with too much to do on a tricky, rain affected Launceston track, only able to manage second to Indispensable whom he meets again here.

Clearly he was well below his best on that occasion. He ran to just 97 with Timeform at Launceston which is his worst rating since the 24th of July, 2021 when running fifth in an open handicap at Caulfield.

It's a far cry from the 116 he ran at his second most recent start when beaten 3.6 lengths in the Group 1 Champions Mile at Flemington, approximately a 6 length worse performance.

Indispensable on the other hand ran to 104 last start, which is an equal peak for him having managed to hit that mark twice when racing in Queensland under Gary Duncan.

It's tough to forecast him improving again and so it all comes down to where The Inevitable is at. If he gets back anywhere near his best, or even back to what he was doing in Tasmania this time last year, he'll win, but he's somehow a shorter price ($1.22) with Ladbrokes to win this time despite being beaten at $1.30 last time

That said, Indispensable doesn't really appeal at $5.50 either given he started $26 last time and it was a big new (recent) spike.

These races are always going to be tricky betting affairs with The Inevitable in them, because he's always going to be deep odds on- even if he did lose again here.

If there were to be one that could improve and perhaps run the quinella at odds, Swoop Dog fits the bill. He was quite good first up over 1100m and then fair in the Conquering last time but he's the one that will relish the step up to a mile now.

The last time we saw Swoop Dog over a mile he did run second to The Inevitable off a very strange platform (back from 2400m) at the same $12 price he is here with Ladbrokes.

Expecting The Inevitable to bounce back and take care of these, but the betting play might be taking Swoop Dog in the quinella or in a Ladbrokes same race multi.