3 minute read
The racing year hits full tilt as Flemington hosts one of the world's premier sprint races - the Lightning Stakes.
A Kiwi named Imperatriz,
Came to Australia and won as she pleased,
She wore tangerine,
Smashed up the sprint scene,
Now the Lightning is next to be seized.
As it stands, Imperatriz should be considered the best sprinter in the world.
The other prime candidate, Lucky Sweynesse, has run five times in his latest campaign and been beaten three times. Drawing from those ratings at random against the same most recent set of five from Imperatriz sees the mare come up trumps ~90% of the time.
In the same five-run span at home, Think About It has emerged and bagged the Everest to go with a Group One double in Brisbane. The Everest, as a single piece of form, is a match for what Imperatriz has achieved but when we consider the full five-start array and simulate races at random, the Tangerine Terror comes out on top - winning ~80% of the time.
The Americans have Elite Power; akin to a Roland Garros specialist operating on the dirt, winning the same final over and over again and obviously good but deep down no one cares, while the European flat scene over the past 12 months has been a rich tapestry of mediocrity. Which is to say, typical.
Imperatriz is fast, versatile and relentless. She deserves to be ranked one not just because of a peak rating but also because of her sixth best rating (122) and her best heavy track rating (118), a figure that she has also produced over a mile, and for the fact that every one of her last five have been (very) fast - all topping that sixth-best 122.
She wears bright colours, that look good both under lights and sunshine, and she's won from on the speed and off. She is, quite simply, a bundle of fun.
Less fun is the fact that the market will do a pretty good job of summing up her chances in Saturday's Lightning and that I am contractually obliged to provide interesting betting options and not just wax about horses I like and am looking forward to in this running blog.
Wishlor Lass is no Imperatriz but she came a long way in a fairly short space of time in the spring and suspicion is that things will set up nicely for her in the Tressady - run as race five - on Saturday.
Wishlor Lass should pitch up in a spot from where Damian Lane can control the pace of the race which can be a vital advantage over those with ratings to trouble her - Revolutionary Miss and Foxy Frida - and well as three recent winners, Vagrant, Fortunate Kiss and Eternal Flame. All of those are potentially held up and waited with.
Wishlor Lass was beaten fresh last campaign when she was waited with and produced too late against a steady gallop. That surely won't be the case now with her having progressed the way that she has and the stable continue to pour in the winners - striking at 24% over the past three months and winning well ahead of market expectations.
Wishlor Lass was last seen running a game race in the high-pressure Empire Rose, a race that produced three Champions Day winners, and that is also where we last saw Jennilala who returns in the last on Saturday's Flemington card.
Jennilala only stepped out twice in the spring, beating a similar line up to this on Coongy Day when quickening nicely off a slow pace, before that Empire Rose burn up. Going second up off a low-pressure race into that test makes it a very easy run to forgive and that she was sent there at all speaks to the regard in which she is held.
The fresh run, among other form clues, hint at that regard being backed up by good reason and double-figure prices can undersell her chances of once again landing the last on a big feature card.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: 5 #3 Wishlor Lass @ $3.20 with bet365*
Each Way Play: Race 10 #8 Jennilala @ $12.00 with bet365*
*Prices are correct as of 4:40pm AEST 15/02
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