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Spring felt a little closer again on Saturday with group racing in Melbourne and Sydney, just two weeks out from the first major of the season.

The new season can be tricky for punters, with the better horses returning against the fit Winter campaigners. We're going to run through a few of the horses from the weekend and quantify their performances with Timeform in a look to their Spring ahead.

Derby Outlook

Berkeley Square was sent out a well backed favourite in Race 1 at Flemington for the new three-year-olds and won well, posting a rating of 100 with Timeform, justifying the + from his 96 rating first up when a key sectional mark up.

Trainer Dan O'Sullivan hinted at the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) and Group 1 Victoria Derby (2500m) as possible targets and they don't look unrealistic off this rating.

The winners of Saturday's Bm70 over the last three years has been Sunfall (92), Fatigues (93), and Heirborn (95+). Now, none of those have gone on to even get close at Group 1 level, but Berkeley Square comfortably tops them and to be rated 100 this early in his career reads well.

The Listed Exford Plate (1400m) has been touted as his next run and recent winners read Mr Mozart (107 up from 93), Crosshaven (111 up from 100), Legionnaire (101 up from 96) and Brutal (112+ up from 105).

Berkeley Square fits in around that Crosshaven (4th in Caulfield Guineas, winner of G3 Carbine Club) mark but perhaps with a better scope to improve over further given his breeding.

For context, the last three VRC Derby winners, after their first run as a three-year-old, were as follows: Hitotsu (94), Johnny Get Angry (89) and Warning (89+). If Berkeley Square can continue to improve on what he's already done he has to be considered a leading chance if he can be kept up long enough.
 

Missile Aftermath

Over in Sydney, the Group 2 Missile Stakes (1200m) saw the return of Group 1 winners Forbidden Love, Hilal and Nimalee, however it was a complete blowout with nine-year-old Queensland gelding Hard Empire winning at 100-1.

He made it a year to year double for Queensland in this race, with the now retired Phobetor winning for Michael Costa in 2021.

Hard Empire ran an identical rating to Phobetor on Saturday at 109, his best effort since running 4th in the Magic Millions Snippets (1200m) to Jonker in January last year.

That pales in comparison to other recent winners of the race, with Group 1 winners Eduardo (117), Alizee (114) and Pierata (119) taking out the three preceding editions.

As a nine-year-old, it's hard to imagine Hard Empire using this as a springboard to Group 1 success, so I think the more prevalent question is whether the horses behind him can get back to their best and compete in the Spring features.

Forbidden Love had an outstanding Autumn rated 119 when winning the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes (1300m) and Group 1 George Ryder Stakes (1500m) on heavy tracks, with the main question being whether she could repeat her efforts on drier ground come the Spring.

A significant dip in the Group 1 All Aged Stakes (1400m) at the end of an arduous campaign rated 92 and returning with a shoddy looking 99 has me questioning her.

She won't beat the handicapper as she did in the Group 1 Doncaster Mile (1600m) and I'm not sure she can continue to win at weight-for-age, especially out of mare's grade, if the tracks aren't bottomless. Next start is crucial for her to silence the Autumn doubters.

Of the other two, I could maybe forgive Hilal running 95 first up, not suited by getting back in the field. He at least came home in the 4th fastest last 200m of the race and did improve sharply last preparation when out to 1400/1600m. I would assume he's being targeted at a race like the Golden Eagle (1500m), with the winning average of that race just under 118. His peak of 116 leaves a touch to be desired there but I'll reserve judgement until next start.

On the other hand, Nimalee returned her worst first up performance since her very first race start where she narrowly won a Canberra maiden. Rated 92 on Saturday, she regressed significantly from previous fresh ratings of 104, 106 and 112. In fact, this is her worst run by Timeform since she was going through the grades as a three-year-old filly in early 2020. No doubt she can improve sharply, but she'll need to.