3 minute read
The Brisbane Winter Carnival really kicks into gear this Saturday with its first Group 1.
It's Stradbroke season and a quality field has been assembled for the first of eight Group 1's over the Winter carnival. It's good to see Giga Kick press on after getting his maiden Group 1 win in the All Aged last start, and he will presumably start a hot favourite at Doomben.
Rated 126 by Timeform off that win, and with a pair of 125's to back it up, he's got a few pounds up his sleeve on his nearest rival, which recently is Mazu.
Giga Kick and Mazu met in the Group 1 T J Smith Stakes (1200m) at Randwick, Giga Kick just edged out by I Wish I Win and Mazu doing well to hold third. Conditions certainly favoured Mazu there who ran right up to his peak of 122, the same number he ran when winning this race last year, also on heavy ground.
Dry ground here, and a draw you'd expect Craig Williams to use on Giga Kick, and Mazu turning the tables seems unlikely.
The equal highest rated horse in the field, at their best, is Eduardo. We haven't seen that for about 18 months now however, although he did run to 124 in September. He was good first up over his preferred short course in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes (1000m) first up, beating Giga Kick home, but Giga Kick was flying late after missing the start and 1200m certainly helps turn the tables.
Mazu, probably, and Eduardo, definitely, may not have any improvement to come, so it may be on a horse with upside to try and challenge Giga Kick here.
Vilana fits that bill. He was awesome winning first up in the Group 3 Hall Mark Stakes (1200m), sitting wide throughout with 58kg but putting the race away in better style than the 1.2 length margin might read.
His peak of 119 came when winning The Hunter on good ground so expect conditions to suit here. Whether he's quite sharp enough to win over 1200m, with perhaps the Kingsford Smith and Stradbroke more realistic Group 1 goals remains to be seen.
Overpass is looking to become the first horse to do The Quokka/Doomben 10,000 double and was tough beating some Group 1 horses at Ascot first up, running to 119 which is his peak. Whether he can improve enough to challenge the best here is a query but if the track is playing on speed he can give a sight.
Aft Cabin is the other three-year-old in the field coming off a workmanlike victory in the Group 2 Arrowfield Sprint (1200m). He did well there to round them up but would need a big new peak here, and keep in mind, he's only had one less start than Giga Kick, who is already rated 10 pounds higher than him.
The best of the locals is easily Prince Of Boom, who won very well first up before a close up third in the Group 2 Victory Stakes (1200m). 117 there was a new peak up from 115 but he's going to face another level of pressure for the front here and is up against it.
It all comes down to price with Giga Kick, who no one could argue deserves to be a clear favourite. Unfortunately, a shade of odds-on is probably about where he fits but black odds on the day would certainly get me interested.
They do look to fly along in this with Eduardo, Overpass, Prince Of Boom and a couple of others which will only suit the best horses stalking the pace. Vilana and Mazu fit that bill for me and would go in my trifecta over Aft Cabin who looks a bit short as second favourite.
