3 minute read

Gary Crispe provides the 2022 Melbourne Cup Timeform Preview.

International raiders are again to the fore in Tuesday's Melbourne Cup headed by northern hemisphere three years old and race favourite Deauville Legend who is attempting to be the third of that age group to win the iconic event since the turn of the century.

He is also joined by another northern hemisphere three year old in Epsom Derby placegetter Hoo Ya Mal now trained by Gai Waterhouse however the prospect of a soft track may not be either's preferred ground.

The Cox Plate eye catching run by El Bodegon has shone a bright light on the form of Deauville Legend. Prior to contesting the Cox Plate El Bodegon had finished a well beaten third to Deauville Legend in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York, a race that has been a key form piece for other northern hemisphere bred three year olds to have raced well in the Cup. 

2018 Cup winner Cross Counter had run second in the Great Voltigeur before running at Flemington.

What makes Deauville Legend's effort more impressive was the manner of the victory, defeating El Bodegon by more than four lengths and running to a Timeform rating of 120.

At his run prior, Deauville Legend had run second to the talented New London in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood after winning the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket over 2615m.

While that form is exceptional for the Cup, the Handicapper was also impressed allotting him 55kg, a hefty 2.5 kgs more than any other northern hemisphere three year old to have contested the cup since 2000. 

Cross Counter carried 51kgs and Rekindling 51.5kgs in their respective wins.

However, despite the weight and untried on soft gound, Deauville Legend brings some quality form to the race. He should prove very hard to beat in a race that looks fairly evenly graded but he is poor value on my assessment.

Deauville Legend will face stiff opposition from local stayers with Timeform ratings predicting bold runs from Gold Trip, Young Werther and Montefelia

There are few better trainers of stayers than the Maher/Eustace team and they are well represented today with five runners. The best of them appears to be Gold Trip who despite having only won one race will carry top eight of 57.5kgs.

That said he does bring the strongest form lines to the race. Last start he was cruising home nicely in the Cox Plate behind Anamoe and that followed a head defeat in the Caulfield Cup behind Durston.

Gold Trip does have some very strong form back in France where he finished fourth in the 2020 Arc behind Sottsass -  a run that clearly wins this race if repeated this afternoon.

Gold Trip takes the highest Timeform rating into the race but when adjusted for weight, it does bring him back to the field.

Danny O'Brien saddles up Young Werther as well as 2019 Cup winner Vow And Declare.

Young Werther has been a slow developing son of Tavistock who has been running into top form after three runs back from a spell – his latest in the Cox Plate behind Anamoe where he finished just over three lengths off the winner at weight for age.

In recent years the Cox Plate has been a useful lead up to the Cup with Verry Elleegant coming through it last year to score an emphatic Cup win while other winners to follow a similar path have been Efficient, Green Moon ,Makybe Diva and Fiorente. 

Significantly Young Werther was having just his third run back from a spell in the Cox Plate and ran a new peak Timeform rating of 118 giving him a strong platform to launch from today where he drops five kilos in weight and gets back to easier handicap conditions.

Young Werther has also run placings in the last two renewals of the Turnbull Stakes.

As a three year old, Young Werther was placed in both the Australian and Victoria Derbys but the now five year old has taken time to mature having only raced 13 times. This afternoon should see connections patience pay off.

Classy G1 winning mare Montefilia will be attempting 3200m for the first time but she has shown gradual improvement in three runs this preparation, the latest in the Caulfield Cup when fourth to Durston, a race she also ran fourth in last year behind Incentivise.

Trainer David Payne has her spot on for today's race and she will relish the soft ground.

Impressive Geelong Cup winner Emissary looms large however his chances rest on the track condition as his best form tends to be on firmer footing which he won't get this time.

Still, he has raced well in the soft range and last Saturday's Lexus winner Surefire who Emissary beat comprehensively at Geelong does frank the form.

Emissary ran a new peak rating at Geelong and was strong at the end of the trip so 3200m should be well within his grasp.

My best roughie for the race is Arapaho who loves wet ground and brings some excellent Sydney form into the race.