3 minute read
Interesting edition of the Adelaide Cup on Monday, largely due to the weights.
Monday's Group 2 Adelaide Cup (3200m) isn't what you'd call a true handicap. Amade sits alone at the top of the weights with 58kg with the rest of the field either on 53.5 or 53kg.
It does make the situation a little bit easier to dissect than a traditional handicap, where theoretically, every horse should have an equal chance. This year, you either think Amade can give them all weight and win, or you find the best horse from the other 16.
Amade ran third in this race last year with 57kg, third-up from a 15 month spell, rated 106+ at his run over 2100m the start prior before running to 107 in his Adelaide Cup effort.
This year, he's going better. He's been up since September but Phillip Stokes has him going very well, running between 104-112 in all seven runs, 112 in his past two.
The ten-year-old missed the start badly at Moonee Valley last time, as he has done on occasion, conceding five lengths at the start before eventually poking through the inside and running on well for third in the fastest last 600/400/200m of the race.
His record at two miles is excellent with three wins and two placings from six starts, although he's only seen the two miles twice in Australia- once in this race last year and also in a Sydney Cup where he had plenty of excuses.
He's also beaten quite a few of these at similar, or even worse weight scales in the past year. The most relevant piece of form is his Group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m) win where he beat subsequent Melbourne Cup 4th placegetter Ashrun, with The Map ($61) beaten over eight lengths in 11th.
The Map, a warm favourite for Monday's feature, was coming off a four-length win in benchmark grade and actually didn't regress that much in the Geelong Cup before bouncing out of it to win the Macca's Run on Melbourne Cup day by a big margin.
Her peak there of 107 would probably win this at the weights, but it looks an outlier in her ratings. She beat very slow horses there, and has run to 98 and 95+ in her two runs back this time in, which won't win on Monday.
She was very good in the Group 3 Lord Reims Stakes (2600m) last time out, getting a long way back and trying to loop the field behind Yellowbrick Road, but she's the same price here as she was there against better opposition.
Alhambra Lad, Excelleration and Grand Pierro come through the Launceston Cup and both must have some chance here. None have seen two miles but Excelleration was powering away late there and was incredibly well backed for his first go at 2400m. All must have some chance, but again, we've seen Amade give more weight to the likes of Grand Pierro and beat him.
If there were to be a blowout like last year, Skelm can run well. He started close to favourite in this race two years ago and has slowly improved with racing off a long, injury related spell. He was good to the line in the Torney Cup, not far off Amade, and if he can improve again from the inside draw he can get into the finish.
ADELAIDE CUP
Tip: #1 Amade at 8-1
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