3 minute read

Timeform recap the 2016 Naturalism Stakes won by Jameka for trainer Ciaron Maher and jockey Nick Hall.

Jameka didn't need the ticket to the Caulfield Cup that the Naturalism provides but her emphatic success, a first since last season's VRC Oaks, thrust her among the key chances for the famous mile and a half handicap.

The 2016 Naturalism was a truly run race on soft ground - so conducive to wide margins - and Jameka was given a sweet ride by Nick Hall but the 3.8 lengths back to second was still a noteworthy margin on the line. The winning margin is the widest in the races recent history. In fact, you have to go back to 1995 to find a winner (Campaign Warrior) with more than a length back to second in the race.

Jameka ran to a new peak Timeform rating of 118, a number backed right up by the strong overall time, and is now the second elect for the Caulfield Cup in current markets.

A rating of 118, up from a rating of 114 last season, has her at the pointy end of Timeform's adjusted ratings for the 2016 Caulfield Cup at this early stage. Adjusted for her weight (she now has 52kgs after a half kilo penalty) that 118 rating becomes 130.

Hartnell is the horse currently at the top of the list with an adjusted rating of 135.

Hartnell was fantastic chasing Winx in the Warwick Stakes and then visually spectacular in the Chelmsford and Hill Stakes. His rating from the Hill Stakes of 127 makes him the one to beat with 55kgs in the Caulfield Cup but it might not be that straightforward. Finishing speeds in Hartnell's top rating performances in Australia have been 107.4%, 109.2%,104.7% and 106.8% - all slow early/fast late. The two races that he has contested in Australia that have been relatively high pressure early, the 2015 Sydney Cup and the 2015 Cox Plate, resulted in two heavy defeats, well below his best form. He still has to prove that he can handle early heat which he will likely face with a big field chasing millions in a Caulfield Cup.

Hauraki is another sporting the Godolphin Blue at the top of the current list having started single figures in the race last year and come back better than ever this prep winning the Tramway and chasing home Winx in the George Main.

He's there on the numbers but he has to prove that he can produce his best at 2400m , a task that also faces Grand Marshal and Wicklow Brave, others who are right up there after adjusting for weights, but both have produced their best numbers over further and don't really fit the Caulfield Cup mould.

So all in all an adjusted rating of 130 puts Jameka in the game, without thinking current single figure quotes are particularly generous.

Given the true tempo and true overall time of the race we can take the form behind Jameka at face value.

Sydney Cup winner Gallante was very good first up but his form is seemingly ground dependent. He needs it soft, beaten favourite Tom Melbourne does not. He tired late in the piece with a true test on soft ground perhaps finding him out for fitness second up.

He was beaten as favourite for the third time in a row, so punters' patience is surely being tested, but he isn't one for the sacked bin just yet. The Cups are probably beyond him at this point but he should still prove better than his current Timeform rating of 109.

The best performance on Saturday's Caulfield card came from He's Our Rokki who ran to 120 winning his second handicap in as many starts this preparation.

He also holds a Caulfield Cup nomination and when adjusted for his weight his rating stands up at 134 - just a pound shy of top dog Hartnell - but he heads to the Toorak over the more suitable mile.

He looks like being just as well handicapped there with his official mark listed at 104 after Saturday's win. The four-year-olds as a group appear particularly well treated at present and a Timeform rating of 120 points to an official mark of 104 being a long way from representative of He's Our Rokki's true ability.