3 minute read

A small but quality field of three-years-olds are set to do battle in the first group one for the age group this season with leading trainer Chris Waller holding the major hand.

Waller will have three runners, Lean Machine Machine, Zousain and The Autumn Sun with adjusted Timeform ratings giving the advantage to Lean Mean Machine over The Autumn Sun with Graff next best.

With five of the last six winners of the Golden Rose coming into the race second up from a spell and off the Run To The Rose, Lean Mean Machine profiles perfectly.

A veteran of just six race starts for three wins, Lean Mean Machine showed his two-year-old winter campaign in Brisbane had the desired impact coming back to racing at three a more mature galloper, running to a new career Timeform peak rating of 117 winning the Run To The Rose.

From two runs in Brisbane at two, Lean Mean Machine peak at 109+ winning the QTC Sire’s Produce Stakes from Zousain then found the group one J J Atkins over 1600m too much in his last run before spelling, that race won by The Autumn Sun.

The win by Lean Mean Machine in the Run To The Rose was full of merit, coming from well off the pace and overcoming severe interference at the 300m. He recovered quickly displaying a turn of foot that only good horses have, to put the race away inside the 100m mark, then coasting to the line winning by almost a length from the talented Graff.

Admittedly Lean Mean Machine got under punter’s guard first up starting at $13, however don’t expect those odds today.

The additional 200m in trip and a drier racing surface will certainly be to his advantage.

The Autumn Sun comes also comes off a luckless run when resuming in the Stan Fox Stakes over 1500m on Run To The Rose day. On face value that form does look to be slightly inferior.

However, as the only group one winner in the field, he deserves respect from that aspect alone.

The Autumn Sun went through his first preparation undefeated in three start culminating in winning the group one J J Atkins over 1600m at Eagle Farm. It takes a special talent to achieve that, ending his two-year-old career with a Timeform rating of 113+.

It would be hard to find anyone that does not believe The Autumn Sun should have won the Stan Fox Stakes over 1500m a fortnight back. He was severely held up for clear running at the 600m having to change course before flashing home late for third running to a figure of 106 – several pounds below where he can be expected to rate this afternoon.

Back in trip today is no disadvantage as Trapeze Artist come off the Stan Fox to win the Golden Rose last year, especially with blinkers on for the first time.

The new kid on the block and winner of three of four race starts is the Kris Lees trained Graff who comes into the race third up after winning the San Domenico Stakes when resuming and then a luckless third to Lean Mean Machine in the Run To The Rose.

Graff went to a new career peak Timeform rating in the San Domenico Stakes over 1100m of 117 then came off that figure last start in the Run To The Rose of 113.

However, Graff was trapped wide throughout in the Run To The Rose which did not help his chances as was Zousain, the pair getting home strongly in the closing stages.

I feel Graff will be much better suited today and with a lower draw should get a lovely passage in the race.

Zousain who had excellent form at two, showed he has returned to racing in fine fettle with his Run To The Rose fourth and like his stable mates mentioned earlier will derive plenty of benefit from the run.

Interestingly Waterhouse/Bott are backing up Santos from his unlucky fifth last Saturday in the Heritage Stakes.

Under the steadier of 59kgs, Santos enjoyed a perfect run behind the speed throughout but then carnage struck in the straight when he became blocked for clear running all the way up the straight.

Again, with just an ounce of luck he wins quite easily.

It is significant that Santos is backing up here as the stable has stated prior to the Heritage run that the Golden Rose would come too soon for him?

Enjoy a competitive race.

Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes

It is still early in the Victorian Spring Carnival but the first wave of international runners to tackle our locals starts at Caulfield today with UK-based Godolphin pair Jungle Cat and Folkswood running in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and Naturalism Stakes respectively.

Retained rider James Doyle who has never ridden at Caulfield previously flies in to partner both gallopers.

Land Of Plenty started at 40-1 in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes in 2017 but in 2018 he hits the race as the horse to beat off a perfect preparation.

Trainer Darren Weir has only recently taken over the preparation of Land Of Plenty won the race in 2014 and 2015, with similar Timeform rated runners Trust In A Gust and Stratum Star respectively.

This afternoon he brings a strong 1-2 punch in this year’s edition with Land Of Plenty joined by Peaceful State who finished second to him at the Valley last time.

There, Land Of Plenty returned a Timeform rating of 112, just a pound shy of his best, and the step to 1400m looks like dragging out that pound and more with a new career peak very easy to envisage.

The history of the race has always favoured those down in the weights, Testa Rossa in 2000 the last horse to carry a high weight to victory winning that year under 58.5kgs, and Land Of Plenty with 54kgs fits that bill.

And so does stable mate Peaceful State with just 52kgs to carry. He’s well handicapped given that and is meeting Land Of Plenty on better weight terms for their last meeting. Peaceful State has to be considered extremely well placed at the weights.

Peaceful State ran to 109 last start when resuming and has a peak Timeform rating of 120 achieved when second to Grunt in the Australian Guineas back in the autumn. That now reads like a decent piece of form after Grunt’s emphatic win in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes last Saturday.

A return to that peak would likely see Peaceful State come out on top on Saturday but perhaps that is more likely to be produced in the Toorak over a mile in three weeks’ time. Even so he looms as a key contender this Saturday.

Osborne Bulls is one of three chances running for Godolphin – two for local trainer James Cummings and Jungle Cat Charlie for Appleby who saddles up just his third ever starter at Caulfield.

Osborne Bulls has the lowest rating of the trio but that is reflected in the weights and his defeat of Land Of Plenty first up clearly makes for good reading. The query would be that Land Of Plenty has clearly come on since that run while Osborne Bulls has missed an intended start with a set back.

There have been no such hiccups for Home Of The Brave who was very good first up in the Aurie’s Star and then exploded in the Theo Marks last time, beating a pair of Group 1 winners in strong overall time.

A Timeform rating of 120 there is a strong figure historically for the Rupert Clarke and he is not unfairly weighted at all. With top jockey Mark Zahra in the saddle and a barrier that leaves options open he looks like getting every chance to run to that level again and pose a strong winning hope.

The best roughie in the race might be the Hayes, Hayes, Dabernig-trained Fastnet Tempest who ran a big race first up and looks in terrific order on that evidence. The step up to 1400m should be a positive for him and the race looks like a bit of a target for him in the early spring.