3 minute read

It will be a case of wet trackers to the fore at Rosehill this afternoon which may make the group one BMW over 2400m a tougher staying test than normal.

For that reason I am expecting further improvement from 2016 Australian Derby winner Tavago who returned to winning form last start in impressive fashion taking out the Sky High Stakes at Rosehill over 2000m.

That was his second run from a spell and bounced off a solid first up effort in the Chipping Norton Stakes behind Winx over 1600m.

Tavago created a big impression last Autumn easily winning the Australian Derby after a luckless effort in the New Zealand Derby.

Despite being high in markets for the Spring staying features, Tavago did not regain his best form last season and was spelled after two below par efforts.

However Autumn seems to bring out the best in Tavago and after just two runs he has already regained the same Timeform rating of 118 that he ran to in winning the Derby.

Tavago is a real mudlark who will not be troubled by the conditions or the step up to 2400m.

Victory for Tavago would see him join Eremein (2006) and Octagonal (1997) as the only Australian Derby winners in the last 25 years to return at four and win the BMW.

It is worth remembering that Tavago easily accounted for subsequent Caulfield Cup winner Jameka in the Derby and she again looks one of the main dangers today.

Jameka also allows a direct comparison with the recent Victorian form lines through the Australian Cup which if holds up here should see Tavago go to a new career peak Timeform rating.

With last start winning rider Blake Shinn staying in the pigskin, Tavago is versatile enough to be handy throughout and take catching.

Narrow Australian Cup winner Humidor who defeated Jameka, brings a peak rating performance to the race this afternoon.

The former kiwi has won five of 14 starts but his record could have been much better except for his wayward behaviour.

Humidor has now raced five times for the Darren Weir stable and after a few luckless performances posted his first win for his new stable last start in the G1 Australian Cup (2000m).

Humidor’s effort to win that day was better than the bare form suggests as he was one of the few horses to defy the track bias, running on strongly out wide from near last on the home turn.

Humidor was unplaced in the same NZ Derby as Tavago was, some five lengths behind the latter, however he was very immature at that stage and the run is no real indication of his ability to run 2400m.

Weir seems to be curbing Humidor’s manners and his ratings profile suggests he could be better still as those endeavours take hold.

Humidor will have no issues with the ground and rates as a huge danger to Tavago. If successful he will join Preferment (2016), Manighar (2012) and Makybe Diva (2005) as the horses who have completed the Australian Cup – BMW double since 2000.

2016 Caulfield Cup winner Jameka has been steadily working up to peak form this preparation and after three runs in look set to reach her peak Timeform rating of 121 today.

Jameka was courageous last start in the Australian Cup being run down late by Humidor after appearing to have the race parcelled up after skipping clear inside the 300m mark.

That effort was also better then it appeared as she was trapped deep throughout which undoubtedly contributed to her tiring late.

Jameka handles wet ground and will also be advantaged by her running style which is handy to the pace.

Interestingly the last horse to win a Caulfield Cup and BMW in the same season was another four-year-old mare Ethereal in 2002 and before her the great Might and Power in 1998.