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Not since Magic Of Sydney in 1996 has the Spring Champion Stakes winner come through the Ming Dynasty Stakes to win a Spring Champion Stakes, however Dealmaker looks set to achieve the feat this afternoon.
Prepared by leading trainer Chris Waller who seeks his 89th group one winner this afternoon and to be ridden by Damien Oliver who chases group one win number 111, Dealmaker rates as the horse to beat on predictive Timeform weight adjusted ratings.
Dealmaker has made steady progress in his Timeform ratings profile this campaign and being by 2012 Spring Champion Stakes winner Dundeel, appeals to be admirably suited by the step up to 2000m from the 1500m of the Stan Fox Stakes 28 days ago.Dealmaker will be third up from a spell this afternoon and after an eye-catching third when resuming in the Ming Dynasty Stakes, impressed with an even stronger effort last start coming from well off the speed in the Stan Fox Stakes to go down narrowly to Tarka whom he again opposes today.
The Stan Fox Stakes has proved to be a solid piece of form with subsequent Golden Rose winner The Autumn Son unlucky back in fourth place while Tarka progressed at his subsequent start to a narrow defeat in the Gloaming Stakes.Despite not racing for 28 days, Dealmaker has had the benefit of an easy barrier trial at Randwick – a typical Waller ploy with horses off such breaks from racing, so there are no concerns on the score of fitness.
It is significant that Oliver has forgone rides at Flemington on Turnbull Stakes day to take the mount - a win would give Australia’s leading group one rider a victory in one of the few major races, that to date has eluded him.The Newcastle Spring Stakes has been an excellent guide to this race and the James Cummings-trained Aramayo does profile very well off his strong winning display in that race.
In a race that, tempo wise, favoured the leaders, Aramayo settled down near the rear before unleashing a powerful sprint down the centre of the track to win comfortably on the line.A winner of two of his only four race starts, Aramayo is a horse with plenty of upside, he will relish the increase in distance today - a win giving rider Tye Angland back to back successes as he piloted Ace High to win the 2017 renewal.
Predictive Timeform ratings suggest there is little between Aramayo and Dealmaker but they will not have proceedings all their own way.Thinkin’ Big’s gritty narrow defeat of Tarka in the Gloaming Stakes last start ensure both remain definite winning chances again while filly Maid Of Heaven on a quick back up from the Flight Stakes last week stakes her claim against the boys coming off a different form line.
Gai Waterhouse has previously won the Spring Champion Stakes four times but Thinkin’ Big could easily give her training partnership with Adrian Bott another group one success.The lightly raced colt may well have been unbeaten in four career starts, but his three wins have all been strong efforts, especially his Gloaming effort where he led throughout and fought hard to hold out Tarka. That effort was off a 56 day break from racing, so further improvement can be expected.
Tarka has won three of his last four runs and has progressed nicely for this afternoon’s assignment.The David Payne stable is in great form and having won the race last year with Ace High, knows the formula for success.
James McDonald who steered Dundeel to win in 2012 is looking for his second success in the race upon Tarka.History may well be against the filly Maid Of Heaven with just one of her sex having won the Spring Champion Stakes since its inception – the talented Yankee Rose in 2016.
Maid Of Heaven is no Yankee Rose, but her run last Saturday in the Flight Stakes when beaten just over a length behind Oohood does give her a chance of getting into the money and is one to be considered for the multiples.Timeform Preview – Turn bull Stakes
A second Turnbull Stakes, and Group 1 win number 21, looks a formality for mighty mare Winx at Flemington this weekend.
Winx will be sent out long odds-on to land win number 28 in an unbeaten sequence that stretches back to May 2015 and includes a trio of Cox Plates.
Saturday will be just the second time that Winx has raced at Flemington, the first being in last year’s Turnbull Stakes where she took care of business by 6.5 lengths.
There is probably more depth to the race this year but Winx looks to be in better form than she was 12 months ago when she arrived off a trio of firm track wins in Sydney where her ratings were a little way short of her lofty peaks.
Last year Winx arrived at Flemington after running 123+ when winning the George Main Stakes. This year she arrives having run 129+ - the best of her three wins in the George Main in ratings terms.
The biggest threat to her on Timeform’s scale is Grunt who ran to 125 when winning the Makybe Diva Stakes earlier this spring. That was a very strong performance but he has since disappointed in the Underwood – going a long way to confirming that he is a different horse at Caulfield than the one that is unbeaten in three runs at Flemington, including a two at the top level.
Kings Will Dream and Jon Snow filled the placings behind Grunt in the Makybe Diva and both should be suited stepping out to 2000m now.
Jon Snow ran a brave race near a strong speed there and is perhaps flying under the radar towards the Cups.
The same couldn’t be said of Kings Will Dream who has been at the head of Caulfield Cup betting for months now and his form leading into the Turnbull has done nothing to change that.
He ran to a career high 122 in the Memsie Stakes before easing off that slightly when running to 120 in the Makybe Diva. The step to 2000m should suit but his campaign looks to be all aimed at the Caulfield Cup and that is where we can expect to see him match or exceed that 122 next.
Youngstar, a stablemate of Winx and fellow Queensland Oaks winner, is also aiming at peaking for the Caulfield Cup. She should run well up in trip and has plenty of upside having faced slowly run races this time in which surely haven’t suited her over trips short of her best.
